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Tehran’s “toll booth” in Hormuz cuts Western buyers out of fertilizer supply chain
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has entered a new phase. Four weeks after Iran effectively closed the waterway to commercial shipping, the disruption is no longer a temporary blockade — Tehran is threatening to build a permanent transit fee and vetting system that could reshape how fertilizer reaches global markets, with significant implications for food ingredient input costs. Fertilizer prices have already moved sharply. The benchmark urea contract price for May 2026 has surged 68% since the conflict began, closing at US$681 per metric ton on March 19, according to the National Corn Growers Association’s market analysis. Fitch Ratings has raised its 2026 ammonia and urea price forecasts by approximately 25%, signaling that markets expect the disruption to persist well beyond the current planting season.We speak with Lauren Bresnahan, chief economist at Cargill, about the inaugural Resilient Food Systems Index — a new benchmark from Economist Impact, supported by Cargill, that scores 60 countries on how well their food systems hold up under stress. We discuss the index’s findings, and their implications for the global F&B system.
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Future of food processing Mar 2026
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We speak with Lauren Bresnahan, chief economist at Cargill, about the inaugural Resilient Food Systems Index — a new benchmark from Economist Impact, supported by Cargill, that scores 60 countries on how well their food systems hold up under stress. We discuss the index’s findings, and their...
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